# Targeted OSINT Assessment: Conflict Dynamics Between SAF and RSF in Sudan

 # Targeted OSINT Assessment: Conflict Dynamics Between SAF and RSF in Sudan

## Executive Summary

This assessment provides an overview of the recent escalation in conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, with a specific focus on the events around Ad Doueim and al-A'waj in the White Nile region. It evaluates the digital footprint, associated entities, sentiment analysis, and potential risks linked to this conflict while offering actionable intelligence for stakeholders.

## 1. Background Information

### Historical Context

- **SAF and RSF Origins**: SAF, the national military of Sudan, has been in existence post-independence, while RSF was formed in 2013 from militias. Both forces have had a complex relationship marked by occasional cooperation and conflict.
- **Recent Events**: On March 30, 2024, the RSF attempted to infiltrate Ad Doueim but was repelled by the SAF in al-A'waj, indicating a significant escalation.

### Key Locations and Individuals

- **Ad Doueim** and **al-A'waj** in the White Nile region are the focal points of the recent conflict.
- **Al-Harith Idris Al-Harith**, Sudan's permanent representative to the UN, accused the UAE of supporting the RSF.

## 2. Associated Entities

- **Internal**: SAF, RSF, Transitional Sovereignty Council.
- **External**: United Arab Emirates (alleged support for RSF).
- **Visual Network Diagram**: (Hypothetical diagram showing connections between entities).

## 3. Digital Footprint Analysis

- **RSF and SAF Online Presence**: Examination of official websites, social media profiles for propaganda, recruitment, and narrative control efforts.
- **Significant Online Activities**: Notable increases in online propaganda corresponding with military operations.
- **Screenshots/Excerpts**: (Hypothetical examples of propaganda efforts, recruitment calls).

## 4. Sentiment Analysis

- **Public Sentiment**: Analysis of social media, forums, and news comments showing a division in public support for SAF and RSF.
- **Sentiment Over Time**: Graph illustrating shifting public sentiment based on key conflict events.
- **Geo-Tagged Sentiment Mapping**: Visual representation of sentiment by region within Sudan.

## 5. Potential Risks or Threats

- **Civilian Harm**: High risk due to RSF's use of civilian shields and military engagements in populated areas.
- **Regional Stability**: Medium risk, with potential for escalation affecting neighboring countries.
- **Disinformation Campaigns**: High risk, with both parties using digital platforms for narrative control.

## 6. Actionable Intelligence

### Recommendations

1. **Monitoring**: Continuous OSINT monitoring of both SAF and RSF digital platforms for early warning signs of escalations.
2. **Engagement**: International diplomatic efforts to mediate and de-escalate tensions.
3. **Support**: Humanitarian support for civilians displaced or affected by the conflict.

### Prioritization

- Immediate focus on mitigating civilian harm and initiating diplomatic engagements.

## 7. Sources and References

- **Official Statements**: (Hypothetical URLs to official statements from SAF, RSF, and the UN).
- **News Reports**: "AlMayadeen" report on the conflict and UNSC complaint.
- **OSINT Tools**: (List of digital tools used for monitoring and analysis).

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Note: This model serves as a hypothetical framework for an OSINT assessment based on the provided scenario. Actual data, sources, and analyses would require extensive research and verification to produce a true intelligence report.